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CHAPTER IV Case of study: modellizzazione of one Manufacturing Supply Chain

4.9 Forecast of the question (Demand Forecasting)

One supposes that the company previews the question so that in the model the variable Expected Order Installments is dealt like a level increased from the Change flow in Exp Orders (variation in the waited for question), like in figure 4.8.


Figure 4.8-Forecast of the question

  • Expected Order Installments

The forecast process can easy be increased in order to include periodic corrections or additional members in order to anticipate the increase of the question.

4.10 Inizializzare the model in equilibrium

To test the model would have to be a process of controlled experimentation. For this reason equilibrium must inizializzare the model in a balanced equilibrium (balanced).
Equilibrium means that all the supplyes in the system are immutable demanding that the afflussi and the effusions must be equal. The model in equilibrium implies also that all the supplyes are equal to their levels wish to you.
In the present model the equilibrium demands that production starts = production = shipments (the conditions for WIP and Inventory is constant); the variation in the waited for orders (Expected Orders) must be zero.
In more a balanced equilibrium it demands that Inventory=Desired Inventory, WIP=Desired WIP and all the flows equal theirs object to you: Shipments, Desired shipments, expected orders, desired production, desired production starts, production starts, and production would have to equal the orders of the customers.
In the present model a balanced equilibrium easy is realized with the following conditions begins them:
  • Inventoryt0 = Desired inventory
  • WIPt0 =Desired WIP
  • Expected Order Ratet0 = Customer Order Installments
Under these conditions adjustment for inventory and for WIP they will be zero, therefore desired production starts = desired production = expected orders = customer orders; ulteriorly when inventory = desired inventory, shipments = desired shipments = customer orders; desired inventory coverage he is sufficiently large that order fulfilment ratio is equal to one.



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